A police officer with a service dog and a traffic police officer patrol a street in Moscow on June 25, 2023. A counter-terrorist operation regime is still in force in Moscow city, after the Wagner private military group was accused of trying to organize an armed rebellion. Photo:VCG
After the Wagner incident was quickly quelled, subsequent media attention remained very high. Russian Prosecutor General's Office reportedly said on Monday that Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin remains under investigation, which seems to contradict the previous statement by the Russian president's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov. Peskov said on Saturday that the criminal case against Prigozhin had been dropped.
After Prigozhin left Rostov on Saturday, there has been speculation as to whether he had actually gone to Belarus and whether he was still with the Wagner Group. Prigozhin reportedly released an audio recording stating that the Wagner Group will end its existence on July 1 because no one agreed to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry. From the latest news, it is imperative for the Russian Defense Ministry to strengthen its management of private armies.
After the incident was quelled, some US and Western officials spoke out, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statement being the most typical. Blinken touted the event as a "real crack" in Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority that "raised profound questions." He also claimed that this crisis is an "unfolding story" and said, "I think we are in the midst of a moving picture, and we haven't seen the last act. We're watching it very closely."
The EU's foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, said that "What has happened this weekend showed that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and affecting its political system," going so far as to claim that the incident proves that Russia's "military power is collapsing."
Western media has since collected various materials showing support and sympathy from the Russian people for the Wagner military group, including quotes from ordinary people and scholars. But there are videos online of some citizens protesting the Wagner military group's incident, including individuals who block military trucks and others who engage in conversation with the mercenaries and level complaints.
Overall, it seems that the Wagner incident has ended and the situation is rapidly consolidating. Currently, people's various speculations revolve mainly around its aftermath. In addition to the "settled scores at an opportune moment" theory, there is also non-mainstream speculation that Prigozhin's true purpose in going to Belarus may be to launch an attack on the flank of Ukraine. This warning came from General Richard Dannatt, former head of the British Army. Many Chinese netizens also speculate that the Wagner incident may be a part of "Putin's next big move."
The situation in Ukraine is another point of emphasis. Although the Ukrainian side pledges to intensify their counterattack using this military coup, there has been no news of Ukrainian forces breaching front lines in the past two days. Blinken on Sunday t gave the Ukrainian army encouragement, stating that although the counterattack would endure "weeks, maybe even over months," "the Ukrainians have in hand what they need to be successful."
Stabilizing the situation, mitigating the impact of the Wagner incident, and reconsolidating the confidence of Russian society seem to be Moscow's most urgent tasks at present. It's not easy to cope with the trauma this incident has created. But Putin's capacity to handle it so quickly and seemingly without difficulty shows that he still has a wealth of political options available to him. The West has deliberately underestimated the Kremlin's capacity to handle complicated circumstances.
People will continue to monitor the development of Russia's return to normalcy in the days to come, particularly focusing on the whereabouts and situation of Prigozhin: Will he be "settled scores at an opportune moment" or will he reappear and play a significant role in the war in Ukraine from Belarus and "make amends for his mistakes"? Only time will tell.
The author is a commentator of the Global Times. [email protected]
